Scenario Results Calculation

Process Scenario Details

Get Scenario and Asset Data, the first step in the process, determines which triggers are applicable to each asset included in the scenario.

The following steps happen for each plan year in a given scenario.

Currently the engine has a global exclusion which only allows one activity per asset per year to be recommended.

1. Determine Qualifying Activities.
   For each asset the associated triggers are examined, using the asset’s performance curve the engine determines the projected date the asset hits each trigger.

• If the projected date of the trigger falls is within the plan years defined for the scenario, the activity associated to the trigger is placed into a list of qualifying activities for the asset.
• If the scenario start date is in the past, the engine ignores the date and uses tomorrow's date when determining qualifying activities. As a result the engine will not recommend any activities for any date in the past.
• The engine defaults to tomorrow's date instead of today's date since completed activities could have already occurred for today.

2. Determine Processing Order Using Activity Sequence.
3. Determine Activity.

• The first/next activity in the list is evaluated.
• Determine if the asset associated to this activity has any other qualifying activities. If it does, then refer to Recommend Single Activity By setting Recommendation) to determine which activity is chosen.

4. Determine If Activity Is Eligible To Be Recommended.
   Refer to the Scenario Type setting to determine if the activity is eligible to be recommended.

• If Yes, continue on to the next step, Recommend Activity.
• If No, repeat process starting at Determine Activity.

5. Recommend Activity.

• Add activity to the list of recommended activities with its calculated cost and impact.
• Impact is calculated based on the projected date of the activity.

6. Determine Whether To Continue.

Refer to Scenario Type setting to determine if activities should continue to be recommended for the plan year.

If Yes:

• Move on to the next activity in the list of qualifying activities and repeat process starting at Determine Activity.
• Continue repeating the process until scenario limitation is met (based on Scenario Type) or there are no activities left with projected dates in current plan year range.

If No:

• Continue on to the next plan year if applicable. All triggers will recalculate projected dates of the activities based on applied activities/impacts in previous plan year.
• If no plan years remain to be processed this step has completed and the next step of saving Scenario Results will begin.

Scenario Results Calculation Example

Below is an example of how Scenario Results are calculated.

The scenario is filtered down to five pavement segments, which all fall into the Asphalt prediction group.

PCI Impacts

Activity	Impact
Replace	100 absolute
Overlay	95 percent
Patch	50 percent
Seal	15 percent

Protocol A—Filter includes all pavement segments.

Triggers

Activity	OCI From	OCI Through	Cost
Replace	0	15	(3.50*[area.amount])+5000
Overlay	20	50	(1.80*[area.amount])+1000
Patch	51	75	(.75*[area.amount])+500
Seal	76	95	(.10*[area.amount])+100

Scenario Inputs

Scenario Type	Number of Years	Scenario Start Date	Activity Sequence	Recommended Single Activity By
Budget Limitation	2	1/1/2017(today)	Asset Criticality	Lowest Cost

Plan Years

Plan Year	Budget
1	$20,000.00
2	$40,000.00

Processing Scenario

Plan year 1 runs from January 1st, 2017 thru December 31st, 2017. The first step in the calculation determines all potential activities for each asset within the start and end date of the plan year. Some assets qualify for more than one activity in a given plan year.

Plan Year 1

Determine Qualifying Activities

Asset ID	Beginning Plan Year Estimated OCI	Qualifying Activity	Projected Date
1	100	Seal	7/1/2017
2	80	Seal	1/1/2017
2	80	Patch	7/1/2017
3	70	Patch	1/1/2017
4	45	Overlay	1/1/2017
5	20	Overlay	1/1/2017
5	20	Replace	7/1/2017

Determining Asset 2's Qualifying Activities:

In this example, a Seal activity within Protocol A is triggered when an asset's Estimated OCI is between 75 and 90. Below Asset 2's Estimated OCI is at 80 for the start of the first plan year, making the asset eligible on the first day of the plan year to qualify for a Seal. Notice Asset 2 also qualifies for a Patch in the first plan year, but not until half way through the year. The calculation recognizes Asset 2's Estimated OCI is at an 80 at the beginning of the plan year and without any work done to the asset, it will deteriorate 10 OCI points throughout the year (based on the given OCI curve above), thus bringing the new Estimated OCI value of Asset 2 to 70 by the end of plan year 1. The Patch activity, however, is triggered when an asset's Estimated OCI reaches 75. This means Asset 2 only needs to degrade 5 points before hitting the next activity. Thus it can be calculated that Asset 2 will reach an Estimated OCI of 75 half way through plan year 1.

Determine Processing Order Using Activity Sequence

The activities now are sorted by Asset Criticality, highest to lowest. The activity sort for this step is determined by the Activity Sequence property for the scenario.

Asset ID	Beginning Plan Year Estimated OCI	Qualifying Activity	Asset Criticality
2	80	Seal	5
2	80	Patch	5
1	100	Seal	4
3	70	Patch	3
5	20	Overlay	2
5	20	Replace	2
4	45	Overlay	1

Determine Activity

1. Calculation pulls the first activity from the now sorted list. In this example, Asset 2's seal activity is the first activity to process
2. Calculation determines which asset is associated to the activity. In this example, Asset 2 is the asset associated to this activity.
3. Calculation pulls all activities for the current asset. In this example, the calculation looks through the entire list and pulls Seal and Patch for Asset 2.​

If the asset's activities were scattered throughout the list, it would still pull all of them regardless of their order.

4. Calculation looks to the Recommended Single Activity By property on the scenario and orders the asset's activities based on it. In this example, the property is set to Lowest Cost, so Asset 2's activity order display as Seal and Patch.
5. Sorted Activity List by Asset Criticality>Asset ID>Recommended Single Activity By Property

Asset ID	Beginning Plan Year Estimated OCI	Qualifying Activity	Asset Criticality	Cost
2	80	Seal	5	$1,472.80
2	80	Patch	5	$10,796.00
1	100	Seal	4	$1,367.20
3	70	Patch	3	$10,004.00
5	20	Overlay	2	$29,512.00
5	20	Replace	2	$60,440.00
4	45	Overlay	1	$27,611.20

 

Determine If Activity Is Eligible To Be Recommended & Recommend Activity

6. Calculation looks at the Scenario Type property to determine if the first activity newly sorted list can be recommended. In this example, the Scenario Type property is set to Budget Limitation. Since the budget for Plan Year 1 is $20,000.00 the Seal property will be recommended. The remaining budget available is then calculated [$20,000.00 - $1,472.80] to $18,527.20. If the first activity of the newly sorted list could not be recommended due to something like a budget constraint, the calculation would move to the next activity in the asset activity sorted list. In this example the calculation would have moved onto the Patch activity.
7. Currently the engine has a global exclusion which only allows one activity per asset per year to be recommended. For this reason the calculation now takes all of the remaining activities for the asset and removes them from the activity list. In this example that means the Patch activity will be removed from the activity list.

Determine Whether To Continue

8. Calculation looks at the Scenario Type Property to determine whether or not to continue processing
   • In this example processing would continue since it is set to Budget Limitation and there is still $18,527.20 available for current plan year.
   • In this example, if there is money left in the budget but no activities cheap enough processing for the plan year terminates, and the calculation moves onto the next plan year. Access funds do not carry over from plan year to plan year, they are instead lost.

Repeat Process Starting At Determine Activity

9. In this example, the next activity processed would be Seal for Asset 1.

Plan Year 1

Recommended Activity List

Plan Year	Asset ID	Beginning Plan Year Estimated OCI	Qual-ifying Activity	Recom-mended Date	Cost	Impact	Estimated OCI After Impact	End of Plan Year Estimated OCI
1	2	80	Seal	1/1/2017	$1,472.80	12	92	82
1	1	100	Seal	7/1/2017	$1,367.20	14.25	100	95
1	3	70	Patch	1/1/2017	$10,004.00	35	100	90

Above is the recommended activity list for Plan Year 1. Notice Asset 4 and Asset 5 did not have activities recommended, this is due to the budget constraint of $20,000.00 for the first plan year. Below are the final numbers for the end of Plan Year 1 for these assets. Note these asset deteriorate 10 OCI points over the course of the plan year since no work has been done to them.

Plan Year	Asset ID	Beginning Plan Year Estimated OCI	End of Plan Year Estimated OCI
1	5	20	10
1	4	45	35

Plan Year 2

Determine Qualifying Activities

Asset ID	Beginning Plan Year Estimated OCI	Qualifying Activity	Projectable Data	Cost
1	95	Seal	1/1/2018	$1,367.20
2	82	Seal	1/1/2018	$1,472.80
2	82	Patch	9/12/2018	$10,796.00
3	90	Seal	1/1/2018	$1,267.20
4	35	Overlay	1/1/2018	$27,611.20
5	19	Replace	1/1/2018	$60,440.00

Sorted Activity List by Asset Criticality > Asset ID > 'Recommended Single Activity By' Property

Asset ID	Beginning Plan Year Estimated OCI	Qualifying Activity	Projected Date	Cost
2	82	Seal	1/1/2018	$1,472.80
2	82	Patch	9/12/2018	$10,796.00
1	95	Seal	1/1/2018	$1,367.20
3	90	Seal	1/1/2018	$1,267.20
5	10	Replace	1/1/2018	$60,440.00
4	35	Overlay	1/1/2018	$27,611.20

The process will be the same as Plan Year 1. The calculation uses the previous plan year's ending estimated OCI for the current plan year's beginning estimated OCI. For this plan year the budget is $40,000.00. Below is the recommended activity list for Plan Year 2.

Recommended Activity List (Plan Year 2)

Plan Year	Asset ID	Beginning Plan Year Estimated OCI	Qual-ifying Activity	Recom-mended date	Cost	Impact	Esti-mated OCI After Impact	End of Plan Year Estimated OCI
2	2	82	Seal	1/1/2018	$1,472.80	12.3	64.3	84.3
2	1	95	Seal	1/1/2018	$1,367.20	14.25	100	90
2	3	90	Seal	1/1/2018	$1,267.20	13.5	100	90
2	4	35	Overlay	1/1/2018	$27,611.20	31.5	66.5	55.5

It is important to point out that Asset 5 never gets replaced because the replacement cost is outside of the budget for the current plan year. For this reason, the calculation skips the recommended activity for Asset 5 and continues on with the next asset in the list. This is why Asset 4 has a recommended activity, but Asset 5 does not, even though Asset 5 has a higher Asset Criticality. At the end of Plan Year 2 Asset 5's Estimated OCI would be at 0, since in this example the asset deteriorates at a rate of 10 OCI points per year.

Scenario Results Frequently Asked Questions

Why does my scenario need to calculate missing asset performance data? Why is this data only calculated for a few records?

Asset performance data is used to calculate asset condition information such as estimated OCI. Estimated OCI is an important factor in scenario processing; if any assets are missing this data, the scenario run process will attempt to generate the missing data. If a customer's Background Task for Cartegraph Asset Condition Recalculator is running nightly, few assets will be missing performance data when a scenario is run.

How do I know which assets are missing performance curve data?

Performance Curve is a child recordset to the asset record. However, simply looking to see which assets have an estimated OCI calculated, is a quick way determine this information. From the Assets page, create a filtered layer for the asset type and set the filter to Estimated OCI is Empty (is null). To ensure all assets which are capable of calculating an estimate OCI have one calculated, confirm the Cartegraph Asset Condition Recalculator is running nightly.

Why do the number of assets in my scenario filter and the Total Assets Included values not match?

When setting up a Scenario, you can specify the assets to include in the Scenario by using the Scenario's Filter Text field. Likewise, when setting up a Protocol, you can specify the assets that apply to that protocol by using the Protocol's Filter Text Field. When running a Scenario, an additional filtering condition is added to both of these filters, which excludes assets that are retired (i.e., have a value in their Retired field). This exclusion of retired assets is not user configurable.

My scenario start date is 1/1/2017. Why are there no activities recommended until tomorrow?

Activity list records will never be created for a date less than tomorrow. If the scenario start date is in the past or today, activities will not be suggested between that date and tomorrow. Tomorrow is one day forward from the date the scenario was run.